Anyone reading BTF posts over the last few months (or even longer) will have noticed two distinct schools of thought regarding how busy things are in Bali. That is, the number of tourists currently visiting the island compared to numbers in the past. Local traders say that things are very quiet. Visitors argue that this is not so pointing to higher traffic volume and scarcer hotel accommodation.
In my opinion there is a possible explanation for the different arguments. My personal observation is that there has been a gradual increase in the number of visitors to Bali from other parts of Indonesia and the less wealthy countries of the region (eg. China). Therefore the ratio of western to non-western tourists has changed. This could account for an overall increase in numbers, resulting in traffic congestion and full hotels.
Perhaps the traders who tell tourists that things are quiet are in fact selling to a lower proportion of Western customers. Non-western tourists would probably drive harder bargains than the easygoing westerners. Also they would be able to source much of the goods on sale locally and probably at a better price. They may have less disposable income to spend on fake watches, massages and hair-plaiting, thus hurting local vendors.
I'd be interested to hear the opinions of others.