In Bali, Properties Less Than 3 Meters Of The Sea Level Are Doomed To Be Submerged
Speaking about a property of dream, what's better than a villa on the edge of the sea with the saline smell and the sound of mesmerizing waves ? Beware ! Reality about climate change is less cheerful.
The fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ) remains alarmed about the rise of sea level.¹ In the coming decades, as a result of global warming, all small islands and properties located less than three meters above sea level are condemned to be submerged. With the upcoming increasing temperature, we will see more melting glaciers, swelling oceans and storms sea strengthening.²
Here Comes The Bali Real Estate Flooding Risk
Peter Christoff , teacher and environmentalist at the University of Melbourne explains in his book entitled ' Four Degrees of Global Warming - Australia in a Hot World ' than 3 meters above the sea level is the minimum safe height for 1) any real estate development and 2 ) the financial evaluation of the present value ( by 2100 ) of all lands along the sea coasts.
Mr. Christoff also states that: « (...) Indonesia, with a population of 240 million and including territory spread across 17,000 islands, is especially vulnerable. Some 1,1 per cent of Indonesia's population lives in the one-metre low elevation zone, and 6,4 % in the three-metre zone prone to coastal flooding in a Four Degree (increase) World. This would imply the potential displacement of up to 15 million people in the latter instance. » ³ Considering these facts, Bali real estate flooding risk becomes a reality to manage in the future.
Note that the displacement of 15 million on 240 corresponds to 6.25%, meaning that six (6) out of every hundred people will one day, in the coming decades, be forced to leave their current place of residence due to flooding .
Two 'tragic' financial consequences will follow:
1) First, it is scientifically proven that the Bali real estate flooding risk for any land bordering the ocean will fluctuate (over the coming years) according to the criterion of ' three meters above the sea level '. Risk will decrease for the highest and increase for properties and lands less than 3 meters of the level of the sea.
2) Flood insurance costs for properties under the three meters above the sea level will 'swell' (as the oceans due to increased heat) to the point of becoming unaffordable or even at the limit disappearing from the insurance market because they will become too expensive for the vast majority of the owners.
The main financial consequence of this 'almost certain' increase of Bali real estate flooding risk would be an higher prices for seaside lands and buildings over three meters from the sea level. Conversely, prices will fall for properties located less than 3 meters from the sea level.
1. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC ). http://www.ipcc.ch/
2.Jean-Paul Fritz, Antarctique : on sait maintenant que la fonte des glaces est bien irréversible, Le Nouvel Observateur, http://tempsreel.nouvelobs.com/sciences/20140512.OBS6867/antarctique-on-sait-maintenant-que-la-fonte-des-glaces-est-bien-irreversible.html
3.Peter Christoff, October 9, 2013, Four Degrees of Global Warming: Australia in a Hot World, Routledge, page 192, http://www.amazon.com/Four-Degrees-Global-Warming-Australia/dp/0415824583
Intan Goyana and Bali Radar Team